Des cinquante-quatre Etats africains, seuls quatorze ont une monnaie commune appelée Franc CFA convertible à taux fixe avec l’euro. En dehors de ces quatorze Etats, les quarante autres ont quarante monnaies non identiques avec des taux de changes différents et souvent flottants vis-à-vis des fortes devises comme l’euro et le dollars US. Quel est le meilleur des deux scenarios : monnaie unique ou monnaies nationales ? Je ne verserai pas dans le débat biaisé par des aprioris et des sentences plus politiques que techniques.
Je constate humblement que les cinquante-quatre pays africains n’ont pas la même monnaie. Pourquoi n’ont-ils pas tout de suite la même monnaie ? Parce que pour partager la même monnaie, il faut entre autres les deux conditions économiques majeures que sont la stabilité des prix (avec une inflation maitrisée souvent autour de 1,5%) et l’assainissement des finances publiques (avec en général un déficit public en deçà de 3 % du PIB et une dette publique en deçà de 60 % du PIB). Un pays qui a sa propre monnaie peut faire ce qu’il veut notamment abuser de la planche à billets (émission monétaire) à ses risques et périls.
Aura-t-il pour autant une monnaie crédible ? Il ne suffit pas d’avoir une bonne forge et une imprimerie infaillible pour battre monnaie. Il faut avoir une monnaie crédible capable d’être utilisé pour accéder aux devises dans les échanges. Pour ce faire, il faut aussi une banque centrale appliquant même vis-à-vis de l’Etat une rigueur monétaire en adéquation avec les politiques économiques. La monnaie n’est pas seulement le côté pile ou face de l’activité économique. Elle peut en être un instrument d’orientation heureuse ou de désorientation économique et sociale malheureuse.
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