Les prix des matières premières industrielles devraient se stabiliser en 2018, après une année 2017 marquée par de fortes hausses, selon l’édition d’octobre de la publication de la Banque mondiale sur les perspectives des marchés des matières premières, Commodity Markets Outlook.
Les prix du pétrole devraient atteindre, en moyenne, 56 $ le baril, au cours de l’année prochaine, contre 53 $ en 2017, en raison de la croissance constante de la demande, du resserrement de l’offre et de la stabilisation de la production américaine de schiste. Cette prévision est surtout conditionnée par l’hypothèse selon laquelle les Etats membres de l’Organisation des pays exportateurs de pétrole (OPEP) et d’autres pays producteurs de pétrole se conformeront en partie à l’accord de limitation de la production.
«Les prix des produits énergétiques se redressent, en réponse à la demande soutenue et à la baisse des stocks, mais cela dépend fortement de la volonté des producteurs pétroliers de réduire davantage la production», a déclaré John Baffes, économiste sénior à la Banque mondiale et principal auteur du rapport.
Les prix du gaz naturel devraient progresser de 3% en 2018, tandis que ceux du charbon reculeront après une forte hausse de près de 30% en 2017. Les futures tendances du marché du charbon resteront tributaires des politiques environnementales de la Chine, a expliqué l’institution de Bretton Woods.
Globalement, les cours des produits énergétiques (pétrole, gaz naturel et charbon), devraient grimper de 4% en moyenne, en 2018, après un bond de 28% cette année.
Dans le secteur minier, l’évolution des prix des métaux, intimement liée à la dynamique économique chinoise, devrait également se stabiliser en 2018 mais restera toutefois sapée dans une moindre mesure par le minerai de fer dont les cours devraient chuter de 10%. Les prix de l’or devraient aussi connaître un repli, l’année prochaine, en raison des prévisions de taux d’intérêt plus élevés aux Etats-Unis, estiment les auteurs du rapport.
Dans le secteur agricole, la performance des prix restera assez marginale. Bien que les prix des produits agricoles soient susceptibles de reculer légèrement en 2017, la Banque mondiale table sur une augmentation dès l’année prochaine. Les prix des céréales, de l’huile végétale et des produits alimentaires progresseront tous dans une proportion marginale, dès 2018.
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